Between 200,000 and 500,000 men could leave Ukraine after the war with Russia ends and all travel restrictions are lifted, Deputy Prime Minister and National Unity Minister Oleksii Chernyshov said on March 12.
Draft-age men are not permitted to leave Ukraine under martial law, which was instituted at the outbreak of the full-scale war in 2022, without a special permission.
Speaking at a press briefing attended by the Kyiv Independent, Chernyshov stressed the demographic challenges facing Ukraine in the fourth year of the full-scale war.
A January report by the National Bank of Ukraine estimated the net outflow of migrants from Ukraine at 200,000 this year and up to 500,000 in 2027.
Some 32 million people live in Ukraine-controlled territories, Chernyshov said. Roughly 5 million Ukrainian refugees remain abroad under the temporary protection of host countries, while millions more live in Russian-occupied parts of the country.
The minister estimated that only roughly 30% of the Ukrainians living abroad may return within the year after the war's potential end. Another 30% may not return at all, he added.
Discussions about peace are gaining ground as the U.S. and Ukraine recently agreed on a temporary ceasefire, which they presented as a step toward a broader peace agreement with Russia.
Demographic trends do not work in Ukraine's favor either. For every 150,000 Ukrainian children born in a year, 450,000 die in the same period, a figure excluding war-related deaths, according to the minister.
This complicates an already dire situation in Ukraine's labor market. Ukraine currently lacks more than 4.5 million workers, Chernyshov said.
Alisa Yurchenko
(Updated: )
