Belarus dictator Alexander Lukashenko visits Moscow, enacting a security treaty and signing a range of agreements that pull Belarus further into Russia’s orbit.
U.S. President Donald Trump slashes RFE/RL funding in another blow to Belarusian media in exile.
Latvia restricts movement at last open border crossing with Belarus amid migration
concerns.
Japanese citizen sentenced to seven years in Belarus on trumped up charges of spying.
Poland and the Baltic states seek to withdraw from the anti-personnel mine ban treaty.
Lukashenko, Putin meet in Moscow, enact Union State security treaty
Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko made a three-day state visit to Moscow that ended on March 15 – his first official visit abroad following his so-called "re-election” in January. The visit also occurred before the Belarusian autocrat was officially inaugurated as the country’s head of state.
Following talks, Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin enacted the Union State treaty, which the sides have dubbed as “security guarantees.” Signed on Dec. 6, 2024, and ratified in late February, the treaty expands Russia’s military presence in Belarus in exchange for the Kremlin opening its “nuclear umbrella” over Belarus.
The treaty is widely seen as ceding Belarus’s sovereignty over its defense and foreign policy. Since using Moscow’s support to crush mass protests triggered by election fraud in 2020, Lukashenko has been largely cut off from the West, and has increasingly relied on Moscow to keep him in power and to support Belarus’s sanctioned economy.
Now, deeply dependent on Russia, Belarus is providing logistical and military support for Moscow’s war against Ukraine. At least 287 Belarusian enterprises supply the Russian war machine, according to Belarusian democratic leader in exile Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.
Addressing the Russian Federation Council, Lukashenko said there had been an erosion of Belarusian sovereignty, adding that Belarus would not formally merge with Russia in the near future.
“If we were to burst through this open door, we would ruin everything we have done. It is necessary to go calmly, step by step,” Lukashenko said.
Following his speech, Moscow approved an agreement to delay Belarus’s repayment of nearly $800 million in debts. Belarus’s total debts to Russia stand at $8 billion.
RFE/RL journalist and political analyst Yury Drakakhrust described the highly controlled yet officially still independent Belarus as an example of the Kremlin’s desired model for relations with post-Soviet countries — including Ukraine.
The Russian and Belarusian dictators also signed an agreement granting rights to Russian and Belarusian citizens permanently residing in each other’s territories to vote in local elections, further deepening the integration processes between the two states.
Another agreement signed during Lukashenko’s visit was dedicated to the mutual protection of citizens “unjustly persecuted by foreign states or international justice bodies.” The document contains a pledge “to jointly combat the negative trend of the politicization of international legal cooperation in criminal matters.”
The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Putin and Russian human rights ombudswoman Maria Lvova-Belova in March 2023 over their involvement in the forced deportation of Ukrainian children from Russia-occupied territories in Ukraine. The threat of an ICC warrant is also hanging over Lukashenko after Lithuania referred a case against him to the court in September 2024. Human rights groups such as Reporters Without Borders and the International Accountability Platform for Belarus have also submitted evidence on the regime’s alleged crimes.
Like Russia, Belarus has abused Interpol’s Red Notice mechanism, using it to hunt down the regime’s political opponents abroad.
Martin Fornusek
Trump’s defunding of RFE/RL deals another blow to Belarusian media in exile
Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko made a three-day state visit to Moscow that ended on March 15 – his first official visit abroad following his so-called "re-election” in January. The visit also occurred before the Belarusian autocrat was officially inaugurated as the country’s head of state.
Following talks, Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin enacted the Union State treaty, which the sides have dubbed as “security guarantees.” Signed on Dec. 6, 2024, and ratified in late February, the treaty expands Russia’s military presence in Belarus in exchange for the Kremlin opening its “nuclear umbrella” over Belarus.
The treaty is widely seen as ceding Belarus’s sovereignty over its defense and foreign policy. Since using Moscow’s support to crush mass protests triggered by election fraud in 2020, Lukashenko has been largely cut off from the West, and has increasingly relied on Moscow to keep him in power and to support Belarus’s sanctioned economy.
Now, deeply dependent on Russia, Belarus is providing logistical and military support for Moscow’s war against Ukraine. At least 287 Belarusian enterprises supply the Russian war machine, according to Belarusian democratic leader in exile Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.
Addressing the Russian Federation Council, Lukashenko said there had been an erosion of Belarusian sovereignty, adding that Belarus would not formally merge with Russia in the near future.
“If we were to burst through this open door, we would ruin everything we have done. It is necessary to go calmly, step by step,” Lukashenko said.
Following his speech, Moscow approved an agreement to delay Belarus’s repayment of nearly $800 million in debts. Belarus’s total debts to Russia stand at $8 billion.
RFE/RL journalist and political analyst Yury Drakakhrust described the highly controlled yet officially still independent Belarus as an example of the Kremlin’s desired model for relations with post-Soviet countries — including Ukraine.
The Russian and Belarusian dictators also signed an agreement granting rights to Russian and Belarusian citizens permanently residing in each other’s territories to vote in local elections, further deepening the integration processes between the two states.
Another agreement signed during Lukashenko’s visit was dedicated to the mutual protection of citizens “unjustly persecuted by foreign states or international justice bodies.” The document contains a pledge “to jointly combat the negative trend of the politicization of international legal cooperation in criminal matters.”
The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Putin and Russian human rights ombudswoman Maria Lvova-Belova in March 2023 over their involvement in the forced deportation of Ukrainian children from Russia-occupied territories in Ukraine. The threat of an ICC warrant is also hanging over Lukashenko after Lithuania referred a case against him to the court in September 2024. Human rights groups such as Reporters Without Borders and the International Accountability Platform for Belarus have also submitted evidence on the regime’s alleged crimes.
Like Russia, Belarus has abused Interpol’s Red Notice mechanism, using it to hunt down the regime’s political opponents abroad.
Trump’s defunding of RFE/RL deals another blow to Belarusian media in exile
Seventy years of U.S.-backed broadcasts promoting democracy worldwide may come to an end after U.S. President Donald Trump on March 14 signed an executive order eliminating seven federal agencies, including the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM), which oversees RFE/RL and Voice of America (VoA).
For Belarus media in exile, the order serves another major blow to the independent press, which have been outlawed in Belarus and forced into exile. An earlier USAID funding cut in January affected around two-thirds of Belarusian outlets, with about 20% pushed to the brink of closure, according to the independent Belarusian Association of Journalists (BAJ).
Trump’s executive order put 1,300 VoA employees on administrative leave and terminated the U.S. Congress-authorized grant for RFE/RL. In response, on March 19, RFE/RL filed a lawsuit against USAGM and its officials to block the funding halt. So far, the Belarusian service of RFE/RL continues to operate, although some freelancers have been let go.
RFE/RL President and CEO Stephen Capus said that canceling the organization’s funding “would be a massive gift to America’s enemies.” Propagandists in Russia, meanwhile, celebrated the decision.
RFE/RL launched its coverage in Belarusian in 1954. Unlike in Ukraine or Russia, the Belarusian service of RFE/RL was never permitted to open an official bureau in Belarus and was never granted FM broadcasting rights. In December 2021, the regime of Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko officially deemed the Belarusian service to be an “extremist organization.”
The independent journalism fostered at the Belarusian service of RFE/RL kickstarted the development of the media industry in Belarus — the service’s first correspondent on the territory of the then Soviet Belarus, Ales Lipai, later founded the first independent Belarusian news agency, BelaPAN.
Beyond being among the few Belarusian-language media, Radio Liberty is the last outlet preserving pre-Soviet spelling and grammar norms, which were later altered to make written Belarusian more similar to Russian. The shutdown of Belarusian Radio Liberty would eliminate this norm from public use.
Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said losing RFE/RL and VoA would be a “grave mistake,” calling them “symbols of the free world.”
Former RFE/RL journalists Ihar Karnei and Ihar Losik remain behind bars in Belarus, serving sentences of more than three and 15 years, respectively. Another Belarusian correspondent, Andrei Kuznechyk, was recently freed in a U.S.-brokered prisoner release. Belarusian propaganda aired interviews with the prisoners in an attempt to undermine Radio Liberty’s coverage of the 2020 anti-government protests in Belarus.
Since strangling popular protests against the rigged 2020 presidential elections, the Lukashenko regime has raided and shut down independent outlets, blocked websites, and jailed 41 journalists and media workers. Thirty-three media workers have been labeled extremists, and 12 have been declared to be “terrorists.” Donating to or advertising with one of the 38 banned media is punishable by up to five years in prison.
About 400 media workers have fled Belarus, relying on foreign grants to keep their newsrooms operating in exile.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said EU foreign ministers discussed the functioning of RFE/RL at a meeting in Brussels on March 17. The bloc cannot automatically fund Radio Free Europe, she said, adding that the EU will look into potential options.
Ten European countries backed the proposal to fund RFE/RL, Czech Minister for European Affairs Martin Dvorak announced on March 18. Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky did not rule out that the European Union might buy Radio Free Europe from the United States.
Martin Fornusek
Latvia restricts movement on sole remaining border crossing with Belarus
The Latvian government, seeking to prevent the inflow of illegal migrants into the country from Belarus, on March 19 limited traffic across the country's only remaining border crossing with Belarus for motorized vehicles.
Similar measures extend to the two checkpoints on the Latvian-Russian border.
Belarus orchestrated an artificial migration crisis in 2021 by channeling flows of nearly 8,000 irregular migrants from the Middle East, Africa, and Asia to Belarus's borders with the EU. The crisis was reignited with the Kremlin's backing in 2022, prompting Poland and the Baltic states to declare it a "hybrid attack" aimed at destabilizing the region.
Latvia's decision prohibits pedestrians and bicycles from crossing the border at Patarnieki-Hryharouschyna, the last operating border post between Latvia and Belarus, for six months. According to Border Guard Chief Guntis Puyats, the possibility of a full shutdown is not ruled out if the irregular migration flow again becomes critical.
The Latvian State Border Guard requested that the government approve the partial closure on March 17, following a nine-hour halt of operations at the checkpoint due to the threat of irregular migration.
According to Puyats, border officers decided to block all traffic movement on the border after they noticed about 30 migrants, predominantly men aged between 20 and 35, with no visas or residence permits, who were seeking to cross the border.
"We understand that this is an instrumentalization of migration," the border guard chief said on air on Latvian TV3.
The Belarusian State Border Committee said that the temporary traffic block had been caused by "a group of Africans traveling to the European Union with valid documents," without specifying whether the foreigners actually had visas to enter the EU.
Latvia's State Border Guard has stopped 254 illegal border crossing attempts from Belarusian territory since the beginning of 2025. In 2024, according to border guards data aggregated by the independent news outlet Pozirk, there were around 30,000 border crossing attempts — 14% less than in 2023 — with 85% of the attempts occurring on the Polish-Belarusian border. Since the onset of the artificial migration crisis, Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland have built physical barriers along their land borders with Belarus and shut down several border crossings.
The Latvian government is actively discouraging its citizens from traveling to Belarus. Two proposals were submitted to parliament in February to prohibit travel companies from organizing trips to Russia and Belarus and to ban passenger transportation with each of the two countries.
Japanese citizen sentenced to 7 years on politically motivated charges in Belarus
After subjecting Japanese citizen Masatoshi Nakanishi to trial on alleged “undercover activities,” a Belarusian court sentenced him to seven years of imprisonment, the maximum term for the offense, the Belarusian Prosecutor General’s Press Office reported on March 17.
A key Russian ally, Belarus has intensified the persecution of foreign nationals since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to the Viasna Human Rights Center. At least 19 foreigners have been tried and sentenced in Belarus for “undercover activities” — a vaguely defined act of “cooperation” with a wide range of foreign or international entities.
The court convicted Nakanishi for allegedly taking over 9,000 photos of civilian and military infrastructure, including military and railway facilities. Belarusian authorities also claimed Nakanishi traveled to the Ukrainian border. The court imposed the maximum possible prison sentence and a fine of around $6,500.
According to a documentary aired on Belarusian state-run TV, Nakanishi lives in Homiel, a regional center near Belarus’s border with Ukraine, and was officially employed as a Japanese language instructor at the local university. The first news of his arrest was published in September 2024, although he was actually arrested in July 2024.
Jailed foreign nationals are often used as bargaining chips by the regime of Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko. In August 2024, Belarus released a German citizen, Rico Krieger, who had been subjected to a swift trial and sentenced to capital punishment on charges including “undercover activities.” Lukashenko “pardoned” Krieger and released him as part of a historic East-West prisoner swap in August 2024, assisting Moscow in returning the Russian killer Vadim Krasikov from prison in Germany.
In 2022, Swiss-Belarusian dual national Natallia Hersche was released after a year-and-a-half in a Belarusian prison following “intense efforts” by Switzerland’s Federal Department of Foreign Affairs. Swiss newspaper Der Bund linked the appointment of a Swiss ambassador to Belarus in February 2022 to the freeing of Hersche.
Belarus still holds around 1,200 political prisoners, at least 36 of them foreigners, under a range of politically motivated charges.
Estonian citizen Alan Royo was prosecuted for slandering Lukashenko and founding an extremist formation, while Latvian citizen Jurijs Ganins was charged on March 13 with discrediting Belarus, calling for sanctions, and insulting Lukashenko.
Poland, Baltics to withdraw from anti-personnel mine treaty
The defense ministers of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, the EU member states bordering Belarus and Russia, have unanimously recommended that their countries withdraw from the Ottawa Convention banning the use of anti-personnel mines.
The ministers reasoned that Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and its ongoing threats to the Euro-Atlantic community had fundamentally changed the security situation in the region since the ratification of the Ottawa Convention.
“With this decision, we are sending a clear message: our countries are prepared and can use every necessary measure to defend our territory and freedom,” reads a statement published by Poland’s Ministry of National Defense.
Despite withdrawing from the convention, the countries say they would uphold their commitments to international humanitarian law, including protecting civilians during armed conflict.
The decision still requires approval by the countries’ parliaments.
While all EU member states have ratified the treaty, Russia and the United States have not. Neither was Russia a signatory of the convention banning cluster munitions, a weapon widely used in the Russia-Ukraine war. Lithuania voted to withdraw from the convention banning the use of cluster munitions earlier in March.
The move to withdraw from the anti-personnel mine ban treaty signals a shift in the front-line NATO states’ defense policies in the wake of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Both the Kremlin and Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko and his military officials have in recent years repeatedly used hostile rhetoric in relation to NATO member-states.
Tim Zadorozhnyy
(Updated: )
