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In a city usually synonymous with bloated bureaucracy, not all official gatherings are worth the fuss. The emergency EU summit on March 6, however, was one to remember.
EU member states agreed to unlock what could amount to an unprecedented 800 billion euros ($867 billion) for defense spending amid mounting signs the U.S. is no longer a reliable ally, and the defense of Ukraine is falling squarely on their shoulders.
"Europe is finally waking up and hearing the alarm bells," one senior European diplomat with knowledge of the discussions told the Kyiv Independent.
"These kinds of discussions wouldn't have happened two or three weeks ago, let alone two or three months ago."
The impetus for the emergency summit were the recent actions of U.S. President Donald Trump, who has become increasingly hostile toward Ukraine and Europe, as he seeks what appears to be a rapprochement with a newly-emboldened Kremlin.
Speaking at the summit, European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen summed up the crisis facing Europe, describing it as a "watershed moment" where Europe faces a "clear and present danger."
"It's like a nightmare we want to wake up from."
While the EU is trying to step up to meet the moment, another alliance of nations from Europe and beyond is also taking shape.
Coalition of the willing
With the U.S. receding from its role as a guarantor of European security and pulling vital intelligence and military support from Ukraine, Europe is preparing to fend for itself.
"It's like a nightmare we want to wake up from," an EU official told the Kyiv Independent at the Brussels summit.
The Trump administration's about-turn away from more than eighty years of U.S. global leadership has prompted the outline for a new alliance of nations to secure peace for Ukraine and Europe.
Led by France and the U.K., the so-called "coalition of the willing" could be made up of a mix of EU states, other European countries, and like-minded partners including Canada and Australia.
"The wider the better" said the EU official, "if we can count on Norway and the U.K., why not?" they added, in a sign that Brexit now appears to be a distant memory.
Paris has proposed a path to peace that would start with a one-month truce in the air and at sea. French President Emmanuel Macron said this would give Russia a chance to prove it is serious about peace.
Crucially, this plan also received support from President Volodymyr Zelensky at the meeting of EU leaders on March 6 — paving the way for a wider plan to be formulated with the help from U.K. and Ukraine which will then be presented to the U.S. and, eventually, Russia.
But how any peace deal might be enforced remains a topic of debate among coalition leaders.
"There is no problem finding willing countries, the problem is figuring out what and how to enforce," another senior EU diplomat told the Kyiv Independent.
"Discussions won't be concrete until we know what there is to enforce."
Coalition countries have so far pledged varying levels of support to a future peacekeeping force for Ukraine. Speaking at a press conference alongside U.S. President Donald Trump on Feb. 27, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that together, the countries were "ready to support Ukraine with troops on the ground and planes in the air."
The U.K. and France have clearly said they would send troops to Ukraine to uphold a peace deal. Around ten other countries, including Spain, Portugal, Australia, Denmark, Canada, and Turkey, said they could be open to sending peacekeepers, while others, including the Netherlands and Ireland, committed logistical and technological support to the plan.
New steps to support Ukraine have already been taken in the short term — Norway announced it would more than double its support this year, the U.K. will give Ukraine an additional $2 billion for air defense, and Franco-British Starlink competitor Eutelsat is in discussions with Ukraine on reducing its dependence on Elon Musk's technology.
The next step will be a meeting next week, convened in Paris by President Macron, of military chiefs from countries willing to commit troops to enforce peace in Ukraine in an effort to coordinate and draw up a potential peacekeeping mission.
Kollen Post
Coalition of the billing
The EU, for its part, does not have authority or responsibility over defense, but it can provide financial assistance.
EU leaders' meeting in Brussels on March 6 took steps towards a dramatic long-term transformation of European defense, pledging to "substantially increase expenditure on Europe's security and defense" and tasking the European Commission to find more money and more financial tools to help member states quickly ramp up military spending.
"Russia is leading a hybrid war against our democracies. It seeks to uproot the world we have, a world of peace which we built since the end of the Cold War," French Europe Minister Benjamin Haddad told the Kyiv Independent at the meeting.
"We will define the areas in which we're lacking, be it ammunition, drones, or cyber, and then figure out common European financing to support member states in making those investments," he added.
One of the ways it plans to support this surge in defense spending is through a 150 billion euro ($162 billion) fund from which member states can borrow money to spend on collective European defense, or to support Ukraine.
The leaders also endorsed another crucial step for the EU — getting out of the way.
The bloc will loosen its debt rules, allowing member states to dramatically increase their defense spending by borrowing more. Should all EU states decide to ramp up defense spending by 1.5% of GDP on average, these new rules could mean an additional 650 billion euros ($705 billion) spent on defense in the EU over four years.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk didn't mince his words on the sense of urgency. "There is no doubt that the war in Ukraine, the new approach of the American administration to Europe, and the arms race started by Russia pose completely new challenges to us," Tusk told reporters at the meeting.
"Europe must join this arms race and win it."
The outcast
EU leaders also made another significant move highlighting this new sense of urgency — ignoring Hungary.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban chose not to support the bloc's statement of intent on continued support for Ukraine on the battlefield, in peace talks, and beyond.
Rather than trying to convince Orban, the 26 other EU leaders decided to crack on without him.
"Hungary has always made things difficult; it's good that the rest said, 'We don't buy it; you go your own way.' It's just more pragmatic to ignore Prime Minister Orban," the EU diplomat said.
That sentiment was echoed by European Council President Antonio Costa. "Hungary is isolated," he said at the end of the meeting. "We respect Hungary's position, but it's one of 27. And 26 are more than one."
The Hungarian leader lashed out after the meeting, aligning himself with Trump and accusing other EU leaders of wanting to "continue the war (in Ukraine) as long as it takes."
This sets up another clash between Budapest and the 26 other member states in the coming weeks. Not having Hungary on board at this meeting made little practical difference, but upcoming debates about renewing sanctions against Russia, continuing to freeze Russian assets, or new support packages for Ukraine could still see Hungary grinding the EU to a halt.
That, and the fact the EU is fundamentally not designed to tackle defense issues, means the future of European military rearmament, and Ukrainian survival, will rely on the commitment of individual EU countries, and allies further afield.
In a clear sign of the importance of these new partnerships, the presidents of the European Commission and European Council, as well as the EU's top diplomat Kaja Kallas, convened a video call with the leaders of the U.K., Turkey, Canada, Norway, and Iceland to debrief them on the EU's new plans.
As Europe gears up for this new reality, EU officials speaking to the Kyiv Independent were stoic, "The spirit of our discussions is that Europe will have to go it alone. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst."
Oleg Sukhov
