Russian forces may shift their focus in the coming weeks to targeting Ukraine's transportation infrastructure, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its April 23 report.
Moscow intensified missile and drone attacks against Ukraine's energy grid in spring 2024, exploiting delays in Western aid that led to critical ammunition and air defense shortages. The assault failed to collapse Ukraine's power grid, but destroyed critical facilities in multiple cities.
The long-awaited passage of a security assistance package worth $61 billion in the U.S. Congress means that Ukraine's defense capacities will soon get a significant boost.
The ISW said that while Ukraine waits for new weapons to arrive, Russian forces will continue their assault in order to "maximize damage to Ukrainian infrastructure and defense industrial base capacity."
According to the ISW, Russia may also change tactics, turning its attention from energy infrastructure to transportation networks in order to prevent the weapons supplies from reaching the front lines.
"Russian forces may shift their target set to hit Ukrainian transportation infrastructure, logistics, and military storage facilities," analysts said.
The ISW based its prediction in part on remarks by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who announced at the Russian Defense Ministry collegium on April 23 that Moscow will escalate attacks against Ukrainian logistics centers and weapons storage facilities.
Russia's April 19 attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, which targeted the Dnipro city railway station, also point to a renewed threat to Ukrainian transportation infrastructure.
Expanded strikes against transportation systems could be part of a strategy to impede Ukrainian forces' logistics and ground lines of communication, the ISW said.
"The Russian military command may hope that a coordinated interdiction effort will constrain Ukraine's ability to sufficiently distribute manpower and materiel to critical sectors of the front and delay the improved capabilities that the arrival of U.S. security assistance will afford Ukrainian forces," analysts said.
Chris York
