Despite indications that Russia is planning a renewed summer offensive, Ukraine will likely be able to curtail the effects of the renewed offensive if anticipated U.S. military aid arrives promptly, the U.S.-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed on April 21.
Although the ISW expects Russia's intensified attacks will continue in the coming weeks ahead of the anticipated arrival of resumed U.S. military aid, the ISW notes that the anticipated military aid for Ukraine must be delivered quickly to quell the expected offensive.
"Russian forces will likely intensify ongoing offensive operations and missile and drone strikes in the coming weeks in order to exploit the closing window of Ukrainian materiel constraints," the report assesses, adding that Ukraine "will likely be able to blunt the current Russian offensive assuming the resumed U.S. assistance arrives promptly."
The ISW's assessment comes as U.S. Senator Mark Warner told CBS News on April 21 that the United States could begin transferring long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to Ukraine "by the end of the week."
Unnamed U.S. defense officials told Politico earlier in the week that the Pentagon had already prepared shipments of weapons and equipment in anticipation of the bill passing.
For months, Ukraine had repeatedly called on the U.S. to pass the much-needed aid amid dwindling air defenses and ammunition on the battlefield. A recent increase in devastating Russian attacks on critical infrastructure has highlighted Ukraine's growing need for assistance.
Ukrainian officials have warned that a renewed Russian offensive would likely start in June, potentially targeting key objectives in Donetsk Oblast.
The U.S. Congress approved a $61 billion aid package on April 20, with the aid package widely expected to be approved by the U.S. Senate in the coming days. U.S. President Joe Biden has promised to quickly sign the bill into law if approved by the Senate.
Chris York
