Russia is signaling its intention to reject a U.S. ceasefire proposal already accepted by Ukraine in Jeddah this week, setting the stage for a likely diplomatic standoff between Washington and Moscow.
After nearly 48 hours of silence on the issue, Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov on March 13 dismissed the idea of a ceasefire, describing it as a "respite for the Ukrainian military" and adding that Russian President Vladimir Putin would comment on the matter later in the day.
Following weeks of tumultuous talks and meetings, including the now infamous Oval Office showdown, Ukrainian and U.S. officials on March 11 emerged from talks in Saudi Arabia in agreement over a ceasefire proposal.
Tim Zadorozhnyy
Kyiv said it was ready to accept a 30-day-long ceasefire if Russia did as well.
In the words of U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Kyiv’s readiness meant the "ball is in (Russia's) court," adding that if the Kremlin rejected the proposal, "then we'll, unfortunately, know what the impediment is to peace here."
In response to Ushakov’s statement, a source in the President's Office told the Kyiv Independent that it is “awaiting what Putin will say.” The source added that it would be "a question for the Americans" if Putin rejects the U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal.
The potential rejection came as no surprise in Kyiv.
"Putin is absolutely not interested in peace or a true ceasefire," lawmaker Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of the parliament's foreign affairs committee, told the Kyiv Independent.
"On the other hand, he is afraid of (U.S. President Donald) Trump. So, he will try to formulate his response to Trump's proposal as a sort of agreement but with unacceptable demands."
The expectation in Kyiv — as well as in other Western capitals — is that Putin will not back down from the maximalist demands he set out at the beginning of his full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
"Putin has not backed off one iota from his maximalist demands, which we all know, (includes) the four (oblasts) of eastern Ukraine, and the neutralization of Ukraine," General Sir Richard Shirreff, former deputy supreme allied NATO commander Europe, told the Kyiv Independent.
"In other words, no NATO, the demilitarization of Ukraine, the 'denazification' of Ukraine, by which he means installing a puppet government."
Russia is set to demand Ukraine withdraw from areas of the four oblasts — Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk — it illegally annexed in 2022 despite not fully controlling them.
The future of any peace process now hinges on Trump's response.
The U.S. has a lot less leverage than it did just a few weeks ago. The Trump administration has ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine and said Kyiv must be prepared to concede territory.
These moves were described by Michael McFaul, former U.S. ambassador to Russia and professor of international studies at Stanford University, as "giving away all your strongest cards before the negotiation has started."
"It's an incredibly bad negotiating strategy on behalf of the Trump team," he told the Kyiv Independent earlier this week.
Ukraine has largely accepted that it won't be joining NATO in time to make a difference to the ongoing peace talks, but the issue of territorial concessions is still in play.
Although Kyiv may be forced to agree to some sort of territorial concessions, it has previously rejected a full withdrawal from all four oblasts. Putin, however, said such a move would be a prerequisite for peace talks.
These mutually incompatible viewpoints mean Trump will be forced to step in and mediate, though what exactly he will do — and which side he'll come down on hardest — remains to be seen.
"Trump's got to do something; otherwise, he'll look very weak," Shirreff said.
Now, the U.S.'s strongest hand remains economic pressure in the form of sanctions, something Trump has already threatened Russia with if they don't agree to the ceasefire proposal.
John Herbst, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, told the Kyiv Independent that this puts immense pressure on Trump to follow through.
"If he suddenly makes a new demand on Ukraine because Russia is asking for it, he looks like Putin's poodle," he said.
But there's always the possibility Trump could impose Putin's maximalist demands on Ukraine, something Shirref said would have enormous consequences for the entire world.
"If the international community signed up to that, it would mean the absolute final nail in the coffin of the international rules-based order," he said.
"Because it means that might is right, and that Putin has got what he wants by appalling force."
Asami Terajima
