As U.S. President Donald Trump continues to push for a swift end to the war in Ukraine, fears are mounting that Kyiv could be forced to accept a peace deal on unfavorable terms, and that will leave it vulnerable to future Russian attacks.
The fears aren't unfounded. After Russia invaded Ukraine's east with the use of proxies and annexed Crimea in 2014, Moscow violated multiple ceasefire deals 25 times, President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a meeting with Trump in the Oval Office on Feb. 28.
"We will not agree to a ceasefire without security guarantees. A document is not enough. We need a strong army. Russian soldiers fear ours, but if we have empty stockpiles, we won't have anything to defend ourselves with," Zelensky said.
The Trump administration has ramped up the pressure on Ukraine to quickly negotiate an end to the war. But given Russia's history of violating ceasefire agreements, Zelensky has continued to look for firm guarantees from both the U.S. and European partners to protect against any renewed Russian aggression.
"If (Trump) can at least get a ceasefire, then he can claim credit, even if Russia violates it every day and no peace deal is ever agreed," Jenny Mathers, senior lecturer in the department of international politics at Aberystwyth University, told the Kyiv Independent.
But Russia is likely uninterested in a ceasefire, said Stephen Hall, assistant Professor in Russian and post-Soviet politics at the University of Bath. "(It) wants Ukrainian neutrality, 'denazification,' and 'demilitarization,' and all of these things that they've been saying for the last three years."
If it were to agree to any ceasefire in Ukraine through negotiations with Trump, "it will only be to build up their forces and then carry the war on," Hall said.
How many times has Russia violated ceasefires with Ukraine?
By launching the war in eastern Ukraine in 2014, Russia first and foremost violated the 1997 Russian-Ukrainian Treaty of Friendship, that "confirmed the inviolability of borders" between the two countries, and according to which Russia was obliged to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
After the start of the war in 2014, the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, which included representatives of Ukraine, Russia, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, was formed. The Normandy Format, which Ukraine, Germany, Russia, and France chaired, was also created at this time.
Following the signing of the Minsk Protocol, also known as Minsk-1, a ceasefire began at 6 p.m. on Sept. 5, 2014. The next day, Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council announced that Russian troops had fired at Ukrainian positions at least 10 times after the ceasefire was declared.
In February 2015, a document on the implementation of the Minsk agreements, also known as Minsk-2, was signed, which included a ceasefire starting Feb. 15. The agreement lasted only a few minutes, as Russian units fired on a Ukrainian checkpoint near Zolote in Luhansk Oblast, according to Ukraine's military.
Since the signing of the Minsk Agreements, Russia violated the ceasefire several times a year from 2016 to 2022. The two sides tried to conclude truces on more than one Christmas and New Year holidays, the start of the school year, or the harvest. None of them lasted.
On July 21, 2019, a "harvest" truce came into effect. Following the start of the ceasefire, one violation occurred when Ukrainian positions were shelled.
A year later, a "full and comprehensive ceasefire" was declared in eastern Ukraine on July 27, 2020. Within 30 minutes, Russian forces attacked the 36th Separate Marine Brigade, according to Ukrainian military reports.
In October 2020, the number of Russian attacks increased, and an extraordinary meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group was convened. It agreed to extend the "full and comprehensive ceasefire." The agreement again did not last long.
"I will be absolutely flabbergasted if the Russians (conclude a ceasefire) and they actually uphold it," Hall told the Kyiv Independent.
Trump's 'peace efforts'
Trump has repeatedly claimed that he wants a swift end to the war between Ukraine and Russia. In the meantime, he has suspended military aid and U.S. intelligence to Ukraine, putting the war-torn country under even greater threat.
"The U.S. is taking steps to reduce Ukraine's capacity to wage war in an effort to persuade Ukraine's political and military leadership that they have no hope of victory — however that might be defined by Kyiv — and must instead agree to whatever terms are offered by Russia via Washington," Mathers said.
According to Mathers, Trump is "showing blatant favoritism" to Russia by ruling out Ukraine's ability to join NATO or revealing his eagerness to restore economic and diplomatic relations with Moscow.
"It is pretty clear that if Trump gets his way, Kyiv will feel that it has no choice except to agree to a ceasefire that would, in fact, be a surrender," Mathers said.
Given the uncertainty over further U.S. assistance and potential security guarantees, the Ukrainian government has increasingly called on its European partners to invest in their defense and help Ukraine.
The Trump administration's actions have also forced Europe to review its approach to defense funding. Ursula von der Leyen on March 4 presented the ReArm Europe plan to strengthen Europe's defense capabilities. The EU agreed to mobilize up to 800 billion euros ($867 billion) for defense spending on March 7.
Mark Temnycky, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, believes that sending European troops to Ukraine could provide the necessary defense against any future Russian attacks.
International support for Ukraine's defense innovation and manufacturing capabilities would also act as a future deterrent, according to Temnycky.
Oleg Sukhov
