North Korean troops are likely to suffer heavy losses in Ukraine, potentially exceeding those of Russia, Estonian Colonel Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center, told the Estonian public broadcaster ERR on Nov. 1.
The first North Korean soldiers were deployed to Russia's Kursk Oblast in late October, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) reported earlier. North Korea has sent nearly 12,000 troops to Russia, including 500 officers and three generals, according to HUR.
North Korean soldiers are usually trained to fight in mountainous terrain, which means they are not familiar with Ukrainian territory, its climate, and geography, Kiviselg said.
"Their training does not include combat operations in such conditions, and the training they receive in the Russian Federation is certainly not of a very high level," Kiviselg said.
"Therefore, we can expect North Korean units to suffer heavy losses in Ukraine, and probably even more than the Russian Federation's forces have suffered so far."
He said that the North Korean troops arrived in Kursk Oblast in "early October," having previously undergone two to four weeks of training. Following this, North Korean soldiers redeployed to the "Ukrainian front," Kiviselg added.
"The arrival of North Korean soldiers on the Ukrainian front will likely take place in stages," Kiviselg said.
"If this additional deployment of (North Korean) units in Russia, their training, and then arrival on the Ukrainian front continues in the long term, it could certainly bring some changes to the front line."
Some 8,000 North Korean troops have been deployed to Russia's Kursk Oblast to participate in the war against Ukraine, according to U.S. intelligence.
According to the Financial Times, Ukrainian intelligence officials are skeptical regarding the combat effectiveness of the North Korean troops, citing communication issues with their Russian counterparts as the main hurdle Moscow and Pyongyang will have to bridge.
North Korea's entry into the war comes when Russia's long and grinding campaign in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk Oblast has dramatically gained pace in recent days. Analysts say Russian forces are advancing at a pace not seen since the early months of the war.
Chris York
(Updated: )
