While the White House celebrates a ceasefire in the Black Sea after a 12-hour meeting in Riyadh, in Ukraine, the enthusiasm is muted.
The agreement is missing crucial securities that Ukraine urgently needs, including protecting its ports from Russian attacks as well as opening up the blockaded Mykolaiv port. The deal negotiated by the U.S. and Russia leans more in Moscow’s favor, experts told the Kyiv Independent.
Washington, Kyiv, and Moscow agreed to a ceasefire on March 25 to “eliminate the use of force” and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes. In return, the U.S. will help restore Russia’s fertilizer and agricultural exports to the world market, lower maritime insurance costs, and enhance access to ports and payment systems for such transactions.
“This is definitely not what Ukraine needs,” said Serhiy Vovk, director of the Center for Transportation Strategies, a consultancy in Kyiv.
“What we urgently need now is the protection of our port infrastructure from missiles and drones, but there is not a single word about this in the White House statement.”
Since the start of the full-scale invasion, Russia has damaged or destroyed 385 port infrastructure facilities, destabilizing Ukraine’s port operations. Ports in Odesa Oblast, Ukraine’s last operating seaport region, suffered attacks on average every three days from January to February 2025.
Russia has also blocked the crucial Mykolaiv port since 2022, one of the largest seaports in the country, adding logistical costs to agricultural producers. Farmers across the country can only export goods from three Ukrainian seaports: Pivdennyi, Chornomorsk, and Odesa.
There are conflicting statements about when the ceasefire will start. President Volodymyr Zelensky said it is in effect from today, while the Kremlin says it will begin when sanctions on Russian food producers and exporters are lifted.
Chris York
After Russia pulled out of the UN and Turkey-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023, Ukraine’s military carved out its own trade route through the sea. It has been a lifeline for Ukraine’s economy by allowing cargo vessels to sail safely by hugging the coastlines of Bulgaria and Romania while guided by the Ukrainian Navy.
Sea drone attacks that sank Russian ships pushed Russia’s fleet eastward and away from the Crimean ports, adding an extra safety cushion.
Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said Russia would violate the new agreement if it moves its warships westwards again. It will be regarded as a threat to Ukraine’s national security, he added.
“If the Russian navy returns to Sevastopol, to Crimea, we will have many risks regarding, for example, our joint anti-mine initiative where we try to demine our sea routes in partnership with Bulgaria, Turkey, and Romania,” said Vovk.
The U.S. and Russia underwent the negotiations without its European allies at the table, despite concerns from Black Sea countries Romania and Bulgaria that the Russian fleet could dominate the Black Sea again.
Those countries should also be included in talks for their safety, said Vovk. Russian attacks on vessels have hit close to NATO member Romania, even damaging a Romanian ship in July 2023.
“I am concerned that this deal may be shifting from a local solution aimed at saving Ukrainian exports into a broader geopolitical game that does not include Ukraine’s allies at the negotiating table,” said Andrii Pidhainyi, a partner and co-head of Transport and Infrastructure Practice at Arzinger, a Ukrainian law firm.
The Good News
Since embarking on its own maritime corridor, Ukraine has been able to export non-food related products, crucially iron ore, which has kept its battered metallurgy industry afloat. Only agricultural products were allowed under the initial Grain Initiative.
The upside, for now, is that Ukraine will not have to return to the previous terms of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and will be able to continue to export metal and mining products.
Without access to sea exports, Ukraine’s metallurgy sector lost out to competitors on the global market, which in turn hit Ukraine’s economy and caused shortages in countries reliant on imports, the National Association of Extractive Industry of Ukraine told the Kyiv Independent.
Ukraine’s own corridor boosted exports by nearly 60% compared to the grain deal, reaching 92 million metric tons last year, according to the Center for Transport Industries. This included 33.7 million tons of iron ore, an 89.9% increase from 2023, according to the GMK Center, a metallurgy consulting company.
The current corridor is much smoother and faster than under the old grain deal, said Bogdan Kostetskyi, an operating partner at consulting service Barva Invest. Sea freight and insurance rates for bulk cargos are close to that of the neighboring Romanian port, Constanta, he noted.
While he sees “little visible benefits for Ukraine,” Kostetskyi said it's good that the new deal does not mention the return of Russian inspections of vessels in the Bosphorus. While on paper, Russian inspectors were searching for weapons, they deliberately drew out the process, causing long delays in the Bosphorus Strait, Ukraine’s Infrastructure Ministry previously claimed.
By October 2022, more than 100 ships were stuck waiting in the Bosphorus at one time, as only five to seven vessels were inspected per day instead of the minimum required 16-18. The holdups cost Ukrainian farmers $10-15 per metric ton in vessel demurrage, Kostetskyi said.
“When Russia controlled the Ukrainian exports in 2023, they sabotaged it. We are not interested (in returning to that),” said Serhii Fursa, deputy managing director at investment firm Dragon Capital.
Tim Zadorozhnyy
