Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Baku on Aug. 18 for a two-day visit for talks with his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev. The trip marks Putin's first visit to the capital since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The talks, which the Kremlin says will focus on "international and regional problems," will likely largely center around strengthening relations with the oil-rich nation, as well as reinforcing cooperation of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) amid Russia's deteriorating relations with Armenia.
Much to Russia's dismay, Azerbaijan, which has been historically aligned with Russia, signed a deal with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in July 2022 to bring imports of Azeri natural gas to "at least" 20 billion cubic meters annually by 2027.
Since 2022, Azerbaijan has continued to extend its oil exports to European countries. Slovenia began to receive natural gas from Azerbaijan on Aug. 1, as European countries diversify away from Russian supplies of fossil fuels.
Ukraine and the EU have also approached Azerbaijan to discuss supplying natural gas to Europe via Ukraine once an existing contract with Russia expires at the end of 2024.
In addition to expected talks on new cooperation on oil shipments, Putin is also expected to use the meeting with Aliyev to address unity concerns in the Russian-led CSTO as relations with Armenia continue to dwindle.
Armenia, who has also long been close with Russia, is now seeking to distance itself, repeatedly accusing Moscow of being an unreliable partner.
Relations between the two countries have continued to sour after Russian "peacekeepers" declined to act during conflicts between Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian-backed entity on internationally recognized Azeri territory, and Azerbaijan, from 2020 to 2023.
Nagorno-Karabakh was re-integrated into Azerbaijan after Baku's final victory in 2023. Following this, Yerevan repeatedly threatened to leave the CSTO.
In March, Armenia's Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan revealed that the country is considering applying for membership in the European Union, aiming to strengthen ties with the West.
Armenia also hosted joint military exercises with the United States in mid-July as relations soured.
Despite Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Azerbaijan has attempted to maintain good ties with Ukraine. According to the Azerbaijani government, Baku has provided at least 15 million euros ($16.5 million) in humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
However, Azerbaijan, which shares a border with Russia, also signed a political and military friendship agreement with Russia just two days before the invasion.
Daria Shulzhenko
