Russia lacks sufficient forces for a big breakthrough in Ukraine, NATO's Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, said during a discussion on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos on Jan. 21.
"I'm not worried that Ukraine could suddenly lose. I don't see the potential for a massive (Russian) breakthrough," Cavoli said.
"And this is not a political but a military vision. It's got to do with both sides, the effective defenses that the Ukrainians have been putting in, but also the difficulty that the Russian side has in generating significant offensive forces to be able to exploit a potential breakthrough."
Russia quickly advanced in Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast in late 2024, making operationally significant gains near Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Kupiansk, as well as on its own soil in Kursk Oblast. Ukraine has struggled to contain the Russian offensive as Ukrainian forces are overstretched and dealing with manpower shortages.
Despite Russian advances, Cavoli said Russia's slow and incremental push is "exhausting" for Moscow's forces.
"After all, there is a reason why Russia brought thousands and thousands of soldiers from North Korea," he added, referring to the 12,000-strong North Korean contingent dispatched to Kursk Oblast.
"I think we're going to continue to see this tension between the desire to attack and the lack of manpower on the part of the Russians. I think that will largely define the conflict and force the Russians to use more weapons of deterrence, as we've seen them do in recent years."
The general also said that though it remains unclear whether the U.S. will continue providing military aid packages under the Trump administration, he pointed to the "very significant uplift in European aid" provided to Ukraine.
Recently inaugurated U.S. President Donald Trump criticized military aid for Ukraine during his campaign and, after his reelection, hinted at reducing it. Multiple media reports have nevertheless indicated that Trump does not intend to cut aid completely but wants to see Europe take up greater responsibility for Ukraine's security.
Chris York
(Updated: )
