Russia may escalate its hybrid warfare tactics beyond sabotage of European infrastructure, potentially resorting to provocations on NATO’s borders, Andriy Yermak, the head of the Presidential Office, warned in a Telegram post on Dec. 29.
Nordic countries have been on high alert due to warnings from European intelligence agencies about potential Russian sabotage of power cables, wind turbines, and gas pipelines.
On Dec. 25, the Estlink 2 power cable connecting Finland and Estonia was severely damaged in an incident investigated as a possible sabotage. Finnish authorities detained the vessel Eagle S, whose anchor reportedly caused the damage, and linked the ship to Russia's shadow fleet used to evade sanctions.
Yermak expressed concern over the risks posed by Russia’s shadow fleet and unconventional threats involving North Korean or Iranian proxies.
"The appearance of North Korean troops dressed in Russian uniforms or Iranian proxies on the borders of NATO countries is quite realistic if Russia is not stopped now. The North Korean military is already fighting in Europe. Who could have thought of this before?" he said.
Yermak said that impunity for such actions could embolden further provocations. "Impunity breeds permissiveness. This is the moment that requires strong decisions and strong actions."
Earlier in 2023, Finland also investigated Russia's role in damaging an underwater gas pipeline, though Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed the allegations as "complete rubbish."
Martin Fornusek
