Editor's note: The story was updated with a statement by the Security Service of Ukraine.
Russia is instructing its propagandists to declare "victory" in the war "against Ukraine and NATO" on Feb. 24, the third anniversary of its full-scale invasion, Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) claimed on Feb. 21.
After Russia failed to take over Ukraine within days in 2022 and suffered several defeats in 2022, the Kremlin began to push the false claim that Russia was at war with NATO.
Western partners have been providing Ukraine with weapons since the beginning of the all-out war but have never sent troops to Ukraine, fearing escalation.
The General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported in its daily update on Feb. 21 that Moscow had lost 864,860 troops in Ukraine since February 2022, including 1,280 casualties Russian forces suffered just over the past day.
According to Ukraine's intelligence agency, Russia now aims to sow despair among Ukrainians, destabilize the situation in the country, and discredit Ukraine among its allies.
Russian intelligence services plan to spread the narrative that "Ukraine has been betrayed" by the West and the U.S., HUR claimed. Russian propaganda will also keep on questioning the legitimacy of President Volodymyr Zelensky and "the corrupt Ukrainian officials who steal U.S. aid."
Martin Fornusek
Ukraine's allies had generally ignored a propaganda narrative about Zelensky's legitimacy until U.S. President Donald Trump accused Ukraine of starting the war and appeared to echo the Kremlin's lines, dubbing Ukraine's president as a dictator.
This claim ignores the fact that it is impossible to hold elections during martial law, which has been in effect since Russia's full-scale invasion began in 2022. As a result, Zelensky's term has been extended, which constitutional lawyers argue is permitted under Ukrainian law.
HUR says that the Kremlin may use the recent U.S.-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia to impose its terms of peace on the world, trying to portray governments in Europe that back Kyiv as "enemies of peace."
No concrete decisions were announced following the meeting between American and Russian delegations, but Ukraine's exclusion sparked alarm in Kyiv and Europe.
Echoing HUR's warnings, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) pointed to mounting cases of Russia's informational and psychological operations aimed against Ukraine.
Using bot farms and fake social media accounts, Russian intelligence services aim to divide Ukrainian society and call for public order disruptions, the SBU said.
