If Western nations allow Russia to defeat Ukraine, China will see it as a signal to invade Taiwan, former U.K. Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said in an editorial for the Sunday Times published Oct. 26.
Fears of escalating Chinese military intervention in Taiwan have risen sharply since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The war has served as a possible model of how both Taipei and the international community might respond if Beijing decides to invade.
"(W)e have the opportunity to send a clear message to the Chinese leadership that subjugating the neighboring democracy by force will never be acceptable," Shapps wrote in the Sunday Times.
"We must send this message by acting much closer to home, here in Europe."
Stepping up support for Ukraine is the most effective way to deter China from attacking Taiwan, Shapps writes, saying a conflict between Beijing and Taipei would have a devastating impact on the global economy.
"Now is therefore the time not only to provide long-range permission for our Storm Shadow missiles but to do so without awaiting a decision from Washington," Shapps said.
The Ukrainian military has received British Storm Shadows, long-range missiles that can fly up to 250 kilometers (150 miles), but is not permitted to use them on Russian soil. Kyiv has urged its allies to lift restrictions on the use of Western-provided weapons, a step that is also included in President Volodymyr Zelensky's five-point victory plan.
"The cost of allowing the use of our weapons, even inside Russia if (Russian President Vladimir) Putin attacks from there, would be minimal compared with the consequences of Putin winning — and thereby allowing others to believe that you can time out the West’s interest," Shapps said.
Shapps called on the U.K. and other Western goverments to ramp up their military aid to Ukraine, arguing that a strong defense of Ukraine alongside "peaceful political discussion" with China offered the best strategy to protect Taiwan and avoid escalated global conflict.
"Redoubling our support for Ukraine today would not only be doing the right thing but would also make an invasion of Taiwan much less likely, thereby protecting us from a recession or even depression," he said.
Asami Terajima
