U.S. President Donald Trump’s escalating pressure on Ukraine over the past week has shocked the global community as he pushes for a quick end to Russia’s full-scale invasion.
The news on March 3 that the U.S. would suspend all military aid to Ukraine sparked fears in Ukraine and joy inside Russia that the U.S. was abandoning its long-standing ally and siding with Moscow.
While a halt in aid could be calamitous for Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against a full-scale invasion that has now carried on for more than three years, many experts believe the U.S. policies towards Ukraine may also cause long-term harm to the U.S.’s own interests.
“Clearly, there will be different views on this," said Ian Lesser, a distinguished fellow of the German Marshall Fund and adviser to the president of the U.S.-based think tank.
"The Trump administration feels that it’s vigorously pursuing an America First policy, and that as a matter of priority, they are looking to greatly reduce — if not disengage from — European security and to leave that responsibility to European allies," Lesser said.
In a contentious televised meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office on Feb. 28, Trump said that Europe should be responsible for any security guarantees negotiated as part of a peace plan.
Trump is pushing for Ukraine to sign a deal that would allow U.S. investors to profit from Ukraine’s natural resources, and has said it’s "not fair" that the U.S. hasn’t received compensation for the funds it has sent to Ukraine.
According to Lesser, however, pivoting away from European defense is an "ill-considered choice" that would likely undermine American interests both in the near term and in the longer term.
America’s long-standing support for Europe has not been an act of charity, he points out, but a policy decision that the country benefits from.
"An insecure Europe has implications for the security of North America," he said.
Additionally, signs of disengagement from the U.S. on international security issues will embolden adversaries beyond Europe, he said, citing the South China Sea as a potential example of where tensions could worsen.
Reputational harm and erosion of influence
One of the immediate effects of Trump’s latest moves has been a growing sense in Europe that it can no longer count on the U.S as a reliable ally.
After the U.S. backed off on its support for Ukraine, the European Union announced a new plan to mobilize hundreds of billions of dollars and boost defense spending.
“Europe is ready to assume its responsibilities," said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on March 4. "This is a moment for Europe and we are ready to step up."
A boost in defense spending is a positive signal for the region’s security, and a move that Trump has long pushed for.
Nevertheless, Trump’s approach has meant it comes at the sharp cost of declining confidence in American leadership, said Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of Isolationism: A History of America's Efforts to Shield Itself From the World.
Kupchan said that Trump’s stated objective — to end the war — is the right goal, but that his strategy has been "disastrous."
"If you're not just Ukraine, but if you're France, Germany, the U.K., South Korea, Japan, you have no choice but to ask yourself: Can I count on the United States?"
In his negotiations, the U.S. president has insulted and sidelined allies, while upending longstanding U.S. policy by demanding severe concessions from Ukraine while appearing to placate Russia.
"If you're not just Ukraine, but if you're France, Germany, the U.K., South Korea, Japan, you have no choice but to ask yourself: Can I count on the United States? Is the United States now passing through a period of such profound political dysfunction that we have to make other plans?" Kupchan said.
“I think the damage that is done to perceptions of the United States, to America's reputation for reliability and steadiness, is very harmful," he added.
'It undermines U.S. influence."
Our adversaries are 'salivating'
A direct consequence of diminished U.S. influence is the weakening of the Western alliance that has kept America’s adversaries in check.
"I think (Russian President Vladimir) Putin and (Chinese President) Xi (Jinping) are drinking a lot of champagne these days," Kupchan said.
"They don’t have to lift a finger. They just sit back and watch Trump weaken the alliance of like-minded countries that has been the anchor of the international system since Pearl Harbor."
George Barros, who heads the Russia Team and Geospatial Intelligence Team at the Institute for the Study of War, shared a similar view.
"Our adversaries are the ones that benefit the most from all these things," Barros said, referring to Trump’s recent moves including the aid suspension.
"They're salivating at the prospect of the American-European transatlantic relationship imploding."
After the announcement of the suspension of aid to Ukraine, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov spoke positively of the decision, and Russian officials and propagandists rushed to defend Trump after his clash with Zelensky.
Despite a March 4 statement from Zelensky in which he proposed steps toward peace and called the Oval Office exchange "regrettable," the aid freeze remains in place.
According to Barros, however, it is still too early to say whether the U.S. is abandoning its ties with Western allies and its role as a leader on the global stage. While he didn’t rule it out, he said there is also a possibility that Trump is pursuing a different strategy that he hasn’t articulated.
Zelensky himself noted the lack of a "clear position" from U.S. officials after the aid suspension during his evening address on March 4, saying "people should not be kept guessing."
Overall, the aid suspension was a "mistake," Barros said — one he hoped would be reversed soon, though he sounded a note of caution.
"I think we’re still going to see more gut punches in the coming weeks and months, most likely. It’s very bad," he added.
Dominic Culverwell
