Ukraine expects 400,000 more people will leave the country in 2024 and 300,000 in 2025, according to the National Bank of Ukraine's (NBU) inflation report published on Aug. 1.
The NBU estimates the number of new emigrants from Ukraine will increase compared to its previous predictions in the April report.
Over 6 million Ukrainians remain abroad after they fled the country as a result of Russia's full-scale war, deepening the country's economic and demographic challenges.
According to the NBU's report, the main reason behind the predicted emigration surge is the difficult energy situation and associated insecurities about the upcoming winter, as well as the slow stabilization of economic processes due to safety risks.
According to the NBU's data, 200,000 people left Ukraine in 2023.
The NBU also said that Ukrainian refugees are likely to start returning to Ukraine in 2026.
The report's authors admit that it will be a slow process, expecting 400,000 returning citizens in 2026. The reasons for the limited numbers are difficult living conditions in Ukraine, primarily due to the power shortages, and the successful adaptation of Ukrainians abroad.
Deteriorating demographics have been a long-standing problem for Ukraine, going decades before the full-scale invasion.
The country's population went from its peak of over 50 million in the early 1990s to over 37 million by January 2024. According to one of the U.N.'s projections, the population could drop to 15.3 million by 2100.
Kate Tsurkan
