Key developments on Jan. 25-26:
- Ukraine strikes drone storage facility in Russia's Oryol Oblast and destroys 200 Shaheds, General Staff reports
- Rubio halts most foreign aid, including Ukraine assistance, Politico reports
- Russia launched over 1,250 bombs, 750 drones at Ukraine during Trump's first week in office
- Ukrainian troops avoid encirclement in Velyka Novosilka, military says
- Russia's Ryazan oil refinery in flames after drone strike, reports say
Ukrainian Air Force units and Defense Forces struck drone storage facilities in Russia's western Oryol Oblast on Jan. 26, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported on Facebook on Jan. 26.
The strike targeted concrete structures housing thermobaric warheads for drones, causing a significant secondary detonation.
“The results and extent of the damage are being specified, but it is preliminary known that more than 200 ‘Shaheds’ will no longer be used against our country,” the statement said.
Preliminary reports indicate that over 200 Shahed strike drones were destroyed, rendering them unusable for future attacks on Ukraine.
The statement emphasized that operations against critical facilities supporting attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure will continue.
Russia has launched thousands of cheap but effective Iranian-designed Shahed drones against Ukraine since the fall of 2022.
Shaheds and its domestic-made variants like Geran are often used for strikes against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.
Shahed-136 drones' flying range, claimed by various sources, varies from 1,000 kilometers (about 620 miles) to 2,500 kilometers (about 1,550 miles). They are said to weigh about 200 kilograms with a maximum flight speed of about 185 kilometers (115 miles) per hour.
Western media, such as the New York Times, has reported the cost of each Shahed-136 drone to be as low as $20,000.
The Oryol region was the target of numerous Ukrainian attacks over the last month, when a drone storage, maintenance, and repair facility was destroyed on Dec. 28 and when an oil depot was hit by drones, later catching on fire, on Dec. 22.
Sonya Bandouil
Rubio halts most foreign aid, including Ukrainian assistance, Politico reports
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced on Jan. 24 new guidance that halts spending on most foreign aid grants for 90 days. This directive, which took State Department officials by surprise, appears to include funding for military assistance to Ukraine, Politico reports.
According to a document obtained by the news outlet, the guidance requires staff to issue "stop-work orders" on nearly all "existing foreign assistance awards" and is effective immediately.
The Kyiv Independent can't immediately verify this information.
Rubio's guidance goes beyond President Donald Trump’s recent executive order, which called for a 90-day pause on foreign aid grants while the secretary reviews them. The president's order left some ambiguity about whether already appropriated funds or Ukraine aid would be affected, but Rubio's directive makes it clear that no further actions will be taken to disburse funds for already approved programs, according to current and former officials familiar with the matter.
The sweeping nature of the mandate shocked many within the department. "State just totally went nuclear on foreign assistance," one official told Politico. While the document allows some exceptions—such as foreign military financing for Egypt and Israel, emergency food assistance, and "legitimate expenses incurred prior to the date of this" guidance—its broad scope leaves room for interpretation. It also states that decisions must remain "consistent with the terms of the relevant award."
Officials believe the halt will affect key allies, including Ukraine, Jordan, and Taiwan. One State Department official and two former Biden administration officials, all speaking anonymously, voiced concerns about the potential impact on these partners. The guidance could expose the U.S. government to lawsuits for unfulfilled contracts if the terms are found to be violated. However, the directive states that decisions regarding the continuation, modification, or termination of programs will follow Rubio’s review.
The omission of Ukraine aid is particularly concerning for American officials who see supporting Ukraine as essential to defeating Russia. While Republicans, including Trump, have long criticized what they view as wasteful foreign aid under Democratic administrations, Trump has recently intensified his stance on Russia. He has threatened Moscow with sanctions if it does not end its nearly three-year invasion of Ukraine and declared that "Putin bears responsibility for ending the war."
The guidance was reviewed and cleared by several senior State Department officials, including counselor Michael Needham and policy planning director Michael Anton. The department is now tasked with preparing a report within 85 days of the guidance’s issuance.
Olena Goncharova
Russia launched over 1,250 bombs, 750 drones at Ukraine during Trump's first week in office
Russia fired 1,250 aerial bombs, over 750 attack drones, and 20 missiles at Ukraine in the last week, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Jan 26.
The attacks targeted Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv,Donetsk, Kherson, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. One of the worst attacks of the week killed at least one person and injured 45 in Zaporizhzhia after Russian forces pummeled the city with drones and missiles, hitting apartment blocks.
Overnight on Jan. 25-26, Russian troops launched 72 drones. Ukraine’s air defense downed 50, said the Air Force.
“Long-range capabilities are crucial. Sanctions are essential. Lowering the price of oil is important. The key is to act in unity and protect lives with resolve,” Zelensky wrote on social media.
In one of his first address since taking office, President Donald Trump threatened to leverage sanctions against Moscow as well as tackle oil prices that keep Russia’s economy afloat.
During his speech to the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos on Jan. 23, Trump said that lowering oil prices would end Russia’s war against Ukraine “immediately.” He said he would ask the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to decrease oil prices.
He’s also pushed for ramped-up drilling for U.S. oil and gas which could also undermine Russia’s fuel sector.
A day before the WEF, Trump said that if a "deal" to end the war in Ukraine was not reached soon, he would have no choice but to "put high levels of taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States and other participating countries."
The Kyiv Independent news desk
Ukrainian troops avoid encirclement in Velyka Novosilka, military says
Ukrainian troops avoided encirclement as Russian forces are poised to capture Velyka Novosilka, Donetsk Oblast, said the 110th Separate Mechanised Brigade.
Ukrainian troops successfully withdrew from some areas to avoid being encircled but fighting is ongoing around the village, which lies around 15 kilometers east of the neighboring Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Equipment on both sides wears thin but Russian infantry vastly outnumbers the Ukrainian side, the brigade wrote on its Telegram channel.
While Russian troops will likely capture the village soon, they will struggle to advance their offensive onward. The Mokri Yaly River creates an obstacle for Russia’s advance and Russian troops are in a vulnerable “fire pocket,” said the brigade.
“Any movement is suppressed by shells and drones," said the brigade.
The river also hindered supply routes to the Ukrainians. On Jan 23, Military spokesperson Viktor Trehubov warned that Ukrainian troops were at risk of encirclement.
Russian forces are attempting to take control of access routes to the village through heavy fire, Trehubov noted.
The Russian Defense Ministry claimed on Jan. 24 that its troops had planted a Russian flag in the center of Velyka Novosilka and that they had split the town in two, cutting off Ukrainian forces. The southern pocket fell most recently.
Experts told the Kyiv Independent that Ukrainian troops were likely holding onto the village's northwestern areas and Russia expected to complete the capture in “days.”
If they do, it will be Russia’s first notable win this year.
It is unclear how many Ukrainian troops were trapped inside the southern pocket in Velyka Novosilka, but it could be around two or three battalions, according to Pasi Paroinen at the Finland-based open-source intelligence organization Black Bird Group. The number of soldiers is probably around several hundred, he added.
Fighting is at a very heavy level in Donetsk Oblast and Russian troops continue to advance, albeit slowly, this year. Throughout the fall of 2024, Russian forces made operational gains in southern Donetsk Oblast, including areas near Toretsk and Chasiv Yar, while advancing near Kupiansk and on Russian soil in Kursk Oblast.
Asami Terajima
Russia's Ryazan oil refinery in flames after drone strike, reports say
A fire erupted at Russia's Ryazan Oil Refinery after a drone strike overnight on Jan. 26, according to Russian media reports.
The reported strike comes two nights after the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and Ukraine's Special Operations Forces (SOS) launched a joint attack against the Ryazan Oil Refinery on Jan. 24.
Locals reported sounds of explosions and an attempted drone attack on the refinery shortly before 1 a.m. on Jan. 26, the Russian Telegram news channel Astra said. Ryazan Oblast Governor Pavlo Malkov confirmed that Russian air defense units were repelling a drone attack in the region.
Andrii Kovalenko, the counter-disinformation chief at Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, posted video to his official Telegram channel purporting to show a fire at the refinery after it was hit by drones.
Astra confirmed that video footage of the fires circulating online was filmed at the site of the refinery, but said that because of the timing of the strike it was difficult to determine whether the fire was from a new hit or the Jan. 24 attack.
The Kyiv Independent could not verify these claims at the time of publication.
The Ryazan Oil Refinery, one of Russia's largest, has the capacity to process 17 million metric tons of oil per year. Profits from fossil fuels fund Russia's war machine and Ukraine considers oil industry facilities to be valid military targets.
Ryazan lies roughly 500 kilometers (310 miles) north of Ukraine's border.
Ukrainian forces have targeted the Ryazan facility in previous attacks. An SBU source told the Kyiv Independent that at least three oil depots and a workshop were set ablaze in the Jan. 24 strike.
Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) also carried out a drone attack on the Ryazan Oil Refinery on May 1, 2024.
Kovalenko said on Jan. 24 that the refinery is a key facility in Russia's military-industrial complex.
"The refinery plays an important role in providing fuel for both the civilian and military-industrial complex of Russia," he said on Telegram.
"It produces fuel for military equipment, aviation kerosene, diesel fuel and other types of petroleum products used in tanks, aircraft, ships and other equipment of the Russian Armed Forces."
Abbey Fenbert
(Updated: )
