Days after U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a pause in sharing U.S. intelligence, the Ukrainian military has reported little effect from that decision on the front.
The pause is likely to have a higher toll on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, experts and military officials say.
The U.S. stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine on March 5, soon after freezing all military assistance in an effort to pressure Kyiv into quick negotiations with Russia. Keith Kellogg, U.S. President Donald Trump's special envoy for Ukraine, said the Ukrainians had "brought this on themselves," for not cooperating in peace talks.
U.S. aerospace company Maxar Technologies has also reportedly restricted Ukraine's access to its satellite imagery, according to the Ukrainian media outlet Militarnyi.
Ukrainian officials said they are working on alternatives with foreign partners. French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu confirmed that France is continuing to provide its intelligence to Ukraine.
“There is nothing unique about the United States’ intelligence capabilities. It is possible to replace them,” Mykhailo Samus, military expert and director of the New Geopolitics Research Network, told the Kyiv Independent.
Effects on battlefield
Several soldiers and commanders fighting across the front said that the intelligence cutoff has little to no effect on their battlefield operations.
At the tactical level, the Ukrainian army has a range of means to get its own intelligence, mostly from drone surveillance. Other sources include the Ukrainian-made situational awareness system Delta, praised by NATO after testing in 2024, and regular reconnaissance operations.
“My drones give me the intelligence,” said ‘Spys,’ an artilleryman fighting in Kursk Oblast who is being identified by callsign only for security reasons.
According to Samus, American intelligence may have had only a sporadic impact on the frontline.
“I am convinced that the frontline will cope without intelligence from our U.S. partners,” said Yurii Fedorenko, commander of the elite unmanned systems regiment “Achilles” fighting in Kharkiv Oblast.
However, both military and experts agree that “there’s never too much intel” when it comes to battlefield operations.
“Ukraine has managed to develop the production of intelligence tools that allow us to cover a certain operational depth,” Fedorenko said.
“But in war, it is important to control the enemy at all stages, from production and logistics to the areas of concentration, and then to the front line,” he added.
Strikes deep into Russia and occupied territories
Since early 2024, Ukraine has regularly conducted drone strikes deep within Russia and Russian-controlled territories, hitting military and strategic targets such as oil refineries.
The strikes have helped to slow down Russia’s frontline logistics and reduce Moscow's gas and oil exports that fuel its war effort.
The U.S. intelligence cutoff is unlikely to threaten the planning of those operations by restricting Ukraine’s access to satellite images, as “Ukraine has its own satellites,” Samus said.
“We still have good intel from our own means.”
Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) confirmed that Ukraine’s crowdfunded satellite had taken over 4,000 images of Russian facilities, used to cause "billions of dollars" in losses to Russia.
“We still have good intel from our own means,” Samus said, “And we have (Ukrainian-made) drones that can “see” at least a couple hundred kilometers deep (into Russia).”
A soldier who asked for anonymity to discuss sensitive matters told the Kyiv Independent that his unit sometimes seeks intel from HUR, which is consistently better and more up-to-date than the intel available within the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
As of this publication, HUR hasn't responded to a request for comment.
Defense from massive air attacks
The main burn of the intelligence cutoff will be felt by Ukrainian civilians, experts said, as it threatens Ukraine's ability to detect on time Russian aerial strikes against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.
“The air defense system does not rely on satellite information, but on information from long-range radars,“ Viktor Kevliuk, a retired military officer and defense expert, told the Kyiv Independent.
Radars are usually turned off to avoid detection by the enemy, he said. But they are turned on to monitor the air situation at long distances when satellites warn of enemy launches of cruise missile carriers or ground- and sea-based ballistic missiles.
“The U.S. actions deprive the Ukrainian Defense Forces of knowing in advance about the beginning of an air attack,” Kevliuk added.
The U.S. Airborne Warning & Control System (AWACS) planes used radars that worked 400-500 kilometers deep within Russia, Samus said.
He underscored that Ukraine’s European partners have the same electronic reconnaissance capabilities and might share this information.
As an alternative, Ukraine can fill up the gap in this intelligence with two Swedish-provided ASC 890 aircraft that were included in a Swedish military aid package for Ukraine last May.
“They would detect (enemy activity) 300 kilometers into Russian territory, including the activity of Iskander (ballistic missile systems), strategic aviation, and so on,” Samus added.
But according to reports, the two aircraft are yet to arrive in Ukraine. It leaves concerns about the harm to civilians that Russian attacks could inflict until then.
“U.S. intelligence knows when Russia is planning something very bad for our cities. And if they were to withhold this information, it just means that more Ukrainian civilians will die.”
“Take the Oreshnik, for example,” said Myroslav Hai, an officer in the Ukrainian army. Russia launched its nuclear-capable ‘Oreshnik’ missile against Ukraine on Nov. 21. Moscow pre-notified the U.S. before the attack through nuclear risk reduction channels.
“U.S. intelligence knows when Russia is planning something very bad for our cities.
And if they were to withhold this information, it just means that more Ukrainian civilians will die,” Hai told The Kyiv Independent.
‘We will adapt’
“This is not the first time that the U.S. have taken such steps,” Fedorenko said, citing months-long delays in military aid and selective provision of intelligence about Russia in the past.
During the full-scale war, Ukraine has managed to overcome many changes and difficulties, and it will adapt to the U.S. intelligence cutoff, soldiers said.
“We will endure,” ‘Bart,’ a special forces sniper fighting in the Pokrovsk direction who is being identified by callsign only, told the Kyiv Independent. “Russia is running out of breath here.”
The pause in intelligence sharing is just the latest of a series of striking measures taken by the the U.S. administration that are working in Russia’s favor, filling Ukrainians with disappointment about its once-ally.
“It will not surprise me if (Trump) starts giving intelligence to (the Russians),” ‘Bart’ added.
“(The U.S.) has sided with Russia and are allowing it to use its weapons more effectively,” Samus said.
“They used to be called the leader of the democratic world, but not anymore. Now they are people who make decisions that facilitate war crimes,” he added.
”This is a catastrophe for the United States, not for us.”
Toma Istomina contributed reporting.
Yana Prots
