As Washington continues to pressure Kyiv into submission, President Volodymyr Zelensky stands at a painful crossroads — agree to U.S. demands or chart a course without Washington, pinning Ukraine's hopes for survival on Europe alone.
Neither option seems reassuring for Ukraine.
U.S. President Donald Trump's constant verbal attacks against Zelensky and Ukraine and the halt in U.S. military aid and intelligence sharing with Kyiv have brought U.S.-Ukrainian relations to a record low.
In the most recent blow, U.S. aerospace company Maxar Technologies has allegedly restricted Ukraine's access to its satellite imagery.
Kyiv has relied on high-resolution satellite images for defense and strategic planning, tracking Russian troop movements, assessing battlefield conditions, and monitoring Russian infrastructure damage.
With the U.S. actively obstructing Kyiv's ability to defend against Russia, European leaders have promised to fill the gap and step up their support for Ukraine.
Despite that, analysts say Washington's support for Ukraine's war effort remains crucial, and Europe cannot fully replace the U.S. in the near future.
Zelensky has attempted to slow down the U.S. pivot toward Russia, praising Trump's leadership and reiterating Ukraine's commitment to peace in a March 4 statement. The U.S. and Ukraine have scheduled a round of talks on ending the war with Russia in Saudi Arabia for next week.
Yet, the U.S. has not resumed its military aid or intelligence cooperation, and U.S. officials have continued to verbally attack Ukraine.
"It is impossible to know Trump's mind, which in any event often changes," Roland Paris, a professor of international affairs at the University of Ottawa, told the Kyiv Independent.
"We can only judge his actions. To date, he has brought U.S. policy on Ukraine into alignment with that of Russia. Unless there is genuine pushback in the United States against this remarkable turnabout in U.S. policy, I would expect Trump to continue on the path he has already been following."
Chris York
Relying on Europe?
As Trump is increasingly siding with Russia on all major issues, Zelensky may be tempted to break relations with the U.S. and rely exclusively on Europe.
Following an emergency summit on March 6, the EU agreed to mobilize up to 800 billion euros ($867 billion) for defense spending amid fears that the U.S. might scale down its presence on the continent.
The ReArm Europe initiative, proposed by the European Commission, includes a 150-billion-euro loan ($162 billion) covered by unused budget funds and a step to loosen fiscal rules and free up 600 billion euros ($650 billion) in government spending.
But analysts say that relying only on Europe would be a very risky option.
"This would be a real disaster," Ukrainian political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko told the Kyiv Independent. "We need Europe in the negotiation process for balance, but severing relations with the U.S. is dangerous for us."
"If we go into conflict with the Americans, we will be pushing them toward closer ties with Russia."
He said that Ukraine still depends on U.S. military aid, including Patriot air defense systems, reconnaissance satellites, and intelligence data, none of which Ukraine is receiving at the moment.
"If we go into conflict with the Americans, we will be pushing them toward closer ties with Russia," Fesenko added.
If there is a conflict with the U.S., Washington may block not only free-of-charge aid but also the sale of U.S. weapons to Ukraine, as well as exert economic pressure and impose sanctions on Kyiv, Fesenko said.
William Wohlforth, a professor focusing on international relations at Dartmouth College, also said that "repairing relations with the Trump administration is a priority because, even if Washington does not provide direct assistance to Ukraine in the near term, its indirect help is needed even if European states take the lead."
"If it has the political will, Europe is probably capable of providing a multinational military force to help secure Ukraine in event of a ceasefire," he added. "But I doubt very much that is possible without all sorts of U.S. indirect assistance: intelligence, logistics, organization. It makes sense for Ukraine to push for this European role but not in a way that suggests antagonism to the U.S."
Charly Salonius-Pasternak, lead researcher at the Center on U.S. Politics and Power at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, said that it might be possible for Ukraine to rely exclusively on Europe's support in the long term.
But it's impossible in the short run, he added.
Chris York
What should Zelensky do?
Experts say that, to improve relations with the U.S., Zelensky should be more subtle in his relations with Trump and focus on practical issues rather than rhetoric.
"What Zelensky and Ukrainian officials should not do is carry out a war of words with Donald Trump," Daniel Hamilton, a foreign policy expert at the Brookings Institution, told the Kyiv Independent. "It is pointless. (Trump's) tactic is disorientation and distraction. Don't be distracted by his words or insults. Focus on your own interests and the role the United States may still be able to play to advance those interests. Stick to the specifics of the issues."
Michael O'Hanlon, a foreign policy expert at the Brookings Institution, also said that Zelensky should "avoid getting into verbal spats with the American president and vice president because to some extent it's what they thrive on" but should not "hesitate to express differences of opinion clearly and calmly."
Several top U.S. officials, including U.S. State Secretary Marco Rubio, urged Zelensky to apologize to Trump after their clash during a meeting in the Oval Office on Feb. 28.
"If (Zelensky) apologizes in a humiliating way, it will only lead to negative consequences."
Zelensky was berated by Trump and Vice President JD Vance and was told to leave the White House soon after.
Analysts say that Zelensky should try to mend relations with Trump, but an outright apology or unilateral concessions would be seen as weakness.
"If (Zelensky) apologizes in a humiliating way, it will only lead to negative consequences," Fesenko said. "Then, we will simply be crushed, oppressed, and forced to comply with whatever they dictate. We will lose the remnants of our independence."
He argued that the "right tone must be found, and we must act extremely carefully — as if walking through a minefield."
Volodymyr Dubovyk, head of Odesa National University's Center for International Studies, also said that an outright apology from Zelensky "would mean that Ukraine's position is weakening and softening."
"That's exactly what they want," he added.
Oleg Sukhov
Who should talk to Trump?
Fesenko and Dubovyk said that Zelensky should not seek a new personal meeting with Trump because it is unlikely to be productive.
"I think the very optics of (such meetings) is already negative, and so there's no need for them to meet physically again," Dubovyk said.
Instead of a direct meeting between Zelensky and Trump, future contacts with the U.S. should be handled by professional negotiators, experts say.
"I think we already have enough experience to know that personal meetings with Trump don't work out," Mykhailo Minakov, head of the Ukrainian Research Program at the Kennan Institute, told the Kyiv Independent. "Right now, we need to take a bit of a pause on direct personal contacts (between Zelensky and Trump) and focus on rebuilding at least some level of trust between the teams and restoring communication between the two camps."
Asami Terajima
Should Zelensky push for security guarantees?
One of the stumbling blocks in U.S.-Ukrainian relations has been the issue of security guarantees.
Zelensky has urged the U.S. to provide security guarantees to Ukraine before any ceasefire deal could be reached. The U.S. has been reluctant to provide them and insisted that a ceasefire deal should precede any discussion on security guarantees.
O'Hanlon said that Zelensky should "recognize that Ukraine will likely get some outside security backstop, and continue to express hope that the United States will be part of any such arrangement, but recognize too that Kyiv is not in a position to 'demand' it."
Fesenko argued that, if Zelensky keeps insisting on security guarantees as a precondition for a ceasefire, relations with the U.S. are unlikely to improve.
He said that "this specific demand triggered a highly negative reaction from both Trump and Vance."
"They have no intention of providing us with any direct or official security guarantees," he added. "Therefore, in my opinion, there is no sense in banging our heads against a locked door, only to end up with more bruises and an even deeper conflict with the U.S."
Dominic Culverwell
Zelensky extends an olive branch
On March 4, Zelensky attempted to mend relations with the U.S.
Without apologizing directly, he wrote a conciliatory post on X (Twitter) expressing his gratitude to Trump and "reiterating Ukraine's commitment to peace."
He also proposed "the release of prisoners and truce in the sky — ban on missiles, long-range drones, bombs on energy and other civilian infrastructure — and truce in the sea immediately, if Russia will do the same."
Zelensky also said that Ukraine was ready to sign a mineral resources deal with the U.S. at any time and that he saw it as "a step toward greater security and solid security guarantees."
The deal would open the way for the U.S. to gain a cut of Ukrainian natural resources through a joint investment fund as payback for the country's support for Kyiv. The agreement was to be signed in Washington on Feb. 28 but the clash between Zelensky and Trump derailed the process.
Two days after Zelensky proposed a bilateral ban on the use of missiles, Russia launched a massive missile attack against Ukraine, targeting the country's energy system and killing civilians.
"Zelensky did say the (White House) incident was 'regrettable,' so essentially saying 'let's move on."
Wohlforth argued that Zelensky's statement is "an effort to move beyond (the White House clash with Trump) and position Ukraine as ready to make moves toward a ceasefire agreement even if the security guarantee issue is not yet resolved."
"Zelensky did say the (White House) incident was 'regrettable,' so essentially saying 'let's move on,'" Hamilton said. "His proposal for limiting some elements of the conflict is an attempt to show he is not blocking explorations for peace."
Peter Rough, a senior fellow at Hudson Institute, told the Kyiv Independent that "Zelensky's post was a smart move" that "lowered the temperature ahead of Trump's address to Congress and removed some of the poison from the relationship."
Kollen Post
Trump reacts to Zelensky's overture
During his speech in Congress on March 4, Trump indicated that he had read Zelensky's post and said that he "appreciated" it.
O'Hanlon argued that it sounded "like President Trump is ready to move on and that he liked what he heard from President Zelensky."
Hamilton also said that Trump "did respond positively to Zelensky's statement."
However, analysts argue that Trump's rhetoric itself does not mean anything, and everything depends on what action he will take.
The U.S. halted military aid to Ukraine and intelligence sharing with Kyiv on March 4 and has not resumed either aid or intelligence cooperation since then.
Meanwhile, the U.S.-Ukrainian negotiations on the mineral resource deal intensified in recent days, but so far, it has not been signed.
Fesenko said he believes Ukraine should set the resumption of military aid as a condition for signing the mineral resource deal.
Hamilton said that there are "mixed signals" and "with some decisions being overtaken by events, so it's unclear even within (Trump's) administration where things are really going."
Bettina Renz, a professor of international security at Nottingham University, said that "considering Trump's inconsistency and often contradictory approach, I would not read too much into what he said about Ukraine in his Congress speech."
"At this point, it remains uncertain whether President Trump will take a more cooperative approach towards achieving peace in Ukraine that does not almost exclusively favor Russian interests and would come at devastating expense to Ukraine," she told the Kyiv Independent.
"If such a cooperative approach, which will include Ukraine's full involvement in any negotiations, is not forthcoming, the relationship between the United States and Ukraine — and also Europe — will not improve anytime soon."
If Trump's administration remains unwilling to maintain at least some level of support for Ukraine, as things stand, Zelensky will be left with little option but to place his hope in Europe's faltering efforts to keep Kyiv afloat.
Oleg Sukhov
